No. 3 Duke brings offensive arsenal to JPJ tonight

By Jerry Ratcliffe

Virginia, riding a three-game winning streak, will face its biggest challenge of the season tonight when the Cavaliers host No. 3 Duke (8 p.m., ESPN).

The Blue Devils (22-3, 14-1 ACC) are 13.5-point favorites according to the oddsmakers against UVA (13-12, 6-8). While Duke has won its last seven road games by an average of 19.8 points, the Devils are 2-2 in their last four visits to John Paul Jones Arena.

Coach Ron Sanchez has improved Virginia’s offensive output of late, as the Cavaliers have posted an offensive rating of 120 or higher in the last five games, the first time that has happened since the 2019 national championship season. During UVA’s three-game winning streak, Barttorvik (statistical analysis) has the Cavaliers ranked the 13th-best team in the nation over that span.

Virginia has scored 73 or more points in five consecutive games, also the first time that has happened since the 2019 campaign.

The Cavaliers have been particularly lethal from the 3-point line over the past three games, shooting an average of 40 percent. Isaac McKneely is leading the way, averaging 16.6 points per game during that three-game streak, while Dai Dai Ames’ offense has been coming alive, putting up 18.6 points per outing over that same period. Still, the Cavaliers haven’t sped up dramatically, ranking No. 362 nationally in pace of play, according to KenPom.com. That is the third-slowest pace in the country.

Duke, loaded with NBA talent (the Blue Devils’ top six players are all rated among the top 50 draft prospects in the nation), is coming off a 106-70 pounding of Stanford Saturday night. The Devils shot 62.5 percent in that win.

“We’re just playing free,” said Duke guard Tyrese Proctor after the win. “We’ve got so many shooters on the court. If you help on Coop (freshman guard Cooper Flagg), or help on Kon (Kneuppel, freshman) on drives, everyone’s loaded up ready for the ball. I think we’re just starting to feel how to play with each other a lot better.”

Flagg has been described by some longtime ACC observers as the best freshman they’ve ever seen come through the conference. The 6-foot-9 Flagg (averaging team highs of 19.8 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 4.0 apg) is a matchup nightmare for most teams, and will likely draw 6-6 Andrew Rohde to start off tonight’s game.

Duke also boasts 6-6 Proctor, who scored 23 in the Stanford win, 7-2 Khaman Maluach and 6-4 Sion James.

If Virginia can continue its offensive success tonight and find a way to get stops with the ‘Pack Line,’ then the Cavaliers could make it a competitive game. Seven of the last 10 meetings between the Devils and Cavaliers have been decided by four points or less.