Here’s why I’m picking Virginia over Clemson … and it’s not defense

By Jerry Ratcliffe

uva clemson

Kihei Clark (0) ponders his next move against Clemson defender Clyde Trapp in a 2020 game in JPJ.

Been asked all week what do I think of Virginia’s game at Clemson on Saturday night. The host Tigers are 9-1 overall, 3-1 in the ACC and ranked No. 12 in the nation.

The game (ESPN, 6 p.m.) features two of the nation’s best defenses, and because it’s a road game for the Cavaliers, the oddsmakers opened the line as a pick’em.

Virginia fans are holding their collective breath because while their Cavaliers are 4-0 in the ACC, they’ve only beaten the bottom of the barrel. Boston College (1-5) is tied for 13th with Miami, Wake Forest (0-4) is 14th and Notre Dame (0-5) is dead last at 15th.

Surely the Clemson game appears to be a true test. The Tigers have beaten Florida State and NC State in conference, Maryland and Alabama nonconference. They’ve also lost at Virginia Tech. Because of Covid issues, Clemson hasn’t played a game since Jan. 5.

With all of the Tigers success, there is this lingering thought about past Clemson teams. They’ve had this tendency to stack up lots of wins early only to collapse as the season progressed.

Kind of like the Chicago Cubs of old and the axiom, “they play in May, swoon in June and die in July.”

That may not be the case with Clemson this time around, but in order for me to believe the Tigers are elite, they’ve got to prove it.

Virginia has won 10 in a row over Clemson, including the last three at Littlejohn.

Tony Bennett knows that this test will be the most serious challenge for UVA since a lopsided loss to No. 1 Gonzaga.

“They’re athletic and they’re real tough and physical,” Bennett said about Clemson after Wednesday afternoon’s win over Notre Dame. “I’ve always been impressed. I think Brad (Brownell) does a great job. They play hard defensively, they’re on the glass and he’s just a good coach. You’ve got to be ready. They make you earn what you get.”

Perhaps this Tiger team is different. Perhaps they are for real.

Here’s why I think Virginia will pass the test.

Offense.

While Clemson is rated the nation’s No. 1 defense (a place where we are accustomed to seeing Virginia) in terms of efficiency by Kenpom.com, the Tigers are No. 72 offensively.

Bennett will take the highest scoring offense of his 13-year Virginia career to Tiger Town. The Cavaliers are averaging 72.4 points per game, the most by any Virginia team since 2008 when Dave Leitao was raging from the JPJ bench.

Think about that number, 72.4, for a moment.

Only twice has a Bennett offense averaged 70 or more, 2018-19 (71.4), and we know what that team accomplished, and 2015-16 (71.0). We know what that team should have accomplished.

While both UVA and Clemson enjoy playing strong defense, what happens if it’s a relatively close game down the home stretch?

In my humble opinion, if this Virginia team needs a big basket, it can get it. There are so many options for Bennett to choose from.

Sam Hauser, Jay Huff, Kihei Clark for sure. Trey Murphy, Reece Beekman, and now the possible offensive emergence of Casey Morsell. Who’s going to shut down all those guys?

As good as Virginia was last season, it’s offense left a lot to be desired. The Cavaliers were ranked No. 234 in offensive efficiency by KenPom. Right now, they’re ranked No. 34.

That’s why I think Virginia is going to win this game, and it could be huge because after the weekend, the Cavaliers return home to host NC State, Georgia Tech and Syracuse, which could put them at 8-0 before traveling to Virginia Tech on Jan. 30.