Will a win over Duke put Virginia into NCAA consideration?

By Jerry Ratcliffe

Virginia’s chances to make the NCAA Tournament go directly through Duke, and that makes Wednesday night’s home game against the Blue Devils the biggest game of the year for the Cavaliers.

If the season ended today, UVA would not make the tournament, ending a long string of Tony Bennett appearances in the Big Dance. Virginia is No. 81 in the NET rankings, actually dropping from No. 80 after beating Miami.

Meanwhile, the Cavaliers actually climbed in the kenpom.com rankings to No. 73.

Still, a glimpse at Barttorvik’s rankings and Virginia is No. 67, but holds only a 5-percent chance of making the NCAAs according to its projections.

We’re not sure how the NET works in comparison to the old RPI rankings and when selection-committee members gave credit for how teams finished. In those days, a team that got hot the last four or five weeks of the season would usually get a positive nod from the committee.

In that case, perhaps UVA AD Carla Williams should show committee members the Cavaliers’ progress. In November and December, Virginia was No. 110 in Barttorvik’s rankings. Since Jan. 1, the Cavaliers are No. 43. Since Feb. 1, they are No. 21.

Talking to Craig Littlepage, Terry Holland and Dick Schultz, all of whom chaired the NCAA Tournament selection committee over the years, members used to consider a team improving over the course of a season, especially if it was hot the last several weeks. Considering that UVA had little experience returning and had to incorporate two transfers in Jayden Gardner and Armaan Franklin, in addition to existing players stepping into new roles and learning the “Pack Line” defense, maybe the committee should bring that into consideration.

With Duke standing at No. 12 in the NET rankings coming into Wednesday night’s clash, it’s almost a foregone conclusion that if Virginia wants to make it to the NCAAs, then it’s going to have to beat the Blue Devils for the second time in two weeks. Duke has won its last five straight road games.

If the Cavaliers can win this game, they would own a 4-5 record in Quad-1 games. That should strengthen UVA’s argument, especially if it can beat Florida State and Louisville to close out the regular season. ESPN college basketball analyst Seth Greenberg said more than a week ago that in his opinion, Virginia needed to win four or five of its final six games. The Cavaliers have won two of three since then, beating Georgia Tech and Miami, losing to Virginia Tech.

Should UVA beat FSU and Louisville, it doesn’t appear that will be enough because neither of those help the Cavaliers in the NET rankings. Losing either would hurt.

Beating Duke is what matters.

There are essentially 21 teams fighting for 11 spots in the tournament, and very few of those, if any, have one win over Duke, let alone possibly two. In the history of the NET, no team ranked above 73 has ever made the tournament.

Barttorvik says that if UVA beats Duke, the Cavaliers’ chances jump from 5 to 16 percent of making the NCAAs. If UVA beats Duke, FSU and Louisville, the chances improve to 29 percent.

UVA could get some help from Providence (one of UVA’s Quad-1 wins) if the Friars can finish strong, adding to the Cavaliers’ resume.

Whatever the case, Virginia’s destiny is in its own hands. Beat Duke, and it would be difficult for the committee to ignore. Lose to Duke and the committee doesn’t have to look for an excuse to omit UVA on Selection Sunday.