By Jerry Ratcliffe
Most casual Virginia football fans and newbies are usually shocked when I tell them that the Cavaliers have only enjoyed one 10-win season in program history.
That special season came in 1989 with Shawn & Herman Moore, a strong offense and a punishing defense. We’ll get into the ‘89 campaign later in this column.
For now, let’s peek at the possibilities of 10 or even more wins if some of the national projections for Virginia come to life. Halfway through the season, standing at 5-1 (3-0 ACC) and ranked No. 19 in the nation in its first bye week, your Cavaliers are looking really good.
Consider that ESPN’s FPI, which projects wins and losses for college football teams, has UVA favored and predicted to win five of the final six regular-season games, which would make the Cavaliers 10-2, and with a chance to win even more games in the postseason.
Here’s how the ESPN FPI (Football Power Index) projections go:
Game 7: Washington State. Virginia is predicted to have a 94-percent chance of winning this game. The Cougars come cross-country to face UVA in the Cavaliers’ final nonconference game. WSU has given up 59 points in each of its last two games and plays at No. 4 Ole Miss this coming weekend.
Game 8: At North Carolina. Virginia has traditionally been in for a battle in Chapel Hill, but with the chaos surrounding Bill Belichick’s first season, who knows what the atmosphere will be like at Keenan Stadium? FPI gives UVA a 87-percent chance of winning.
Game 9: At Cal. The Golden Bears are riding the arm of true freshman QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, who dominated Duke early last Saturday night before playing like a freshman in the second half. Cal takes on UNC and Virginia Tech the next two weeks, chances to grab two wins and gather momentum before UVA travels cross-country. Still, FPI projects Virginia having a 72-percent chance of winning the road trip.
Game 10: Wake Forest. The Deacs are sneaky good, having outlasted a wounded Virginia Tech team in Blacksburg last weekend. UVA has been tough at home this season and should be able to get past Wake. FPI says Virginia has an 86-percent chance of winning this one.
Game 11: at Duke. This is the only remaining game on the schedule that Virginia is not favored to win. The Blue Devils have been dynamic offensively behind former Tulane golden-armed QB Darian Mensah, who slings the ball all over the lot, more than 300 yards a game. On the other hand, Duke’s defense has had some rough patches, particularly in the secondary, and that could give Virginia an edge with QB Chandler Morris and a fleet of receivers. FPI gives Duke a 59-percent chance of winning this game.
Game 12: Virginia Tech. If Virginia is going to stop the bleeding in this lopsided rivalry — the Cavaliers have only won twice against the Hokies this century — it’s this season. Tech has struggled, has fired its head coach and has had some players leave the program. Who knows what the Hokies program will resemble by the time it makes it to Scott Stadium in late November. Between now and then, Tech must face No. 13 Georgia Tech, No. 4 Miami, No. 25 Florida State, Louisville, then No. 19 Virginia. Ouch. FPI calls it UVA with an 82-percent chance to win this game.
Obviously that equates to a 10-2 season, which could give Virginia a shot of making the ACC Championship game and certainly a decent bowl game or more. Dare we say CFP?
The only other 10-win season (10-3) came in 1989 and led up to Virginia’s great run to a national No. 1 ranking in 1990.
So in ‘89, UVA opened up — get this — against defending national champion and No. 2 ranked Lou Holtz’s Notre Dame team in the Kickoff Classic at the Meadowlands. The Cavaliers weren’t ready for the challenge and got walloped, 36-13. George Welsh told me later that Holtz called the dogs off. Holtz told me later that he didn’t.
If that wasn’t enough of a challenge, Virginia had to go to Penn State nine days later to take on Joe Paterno’s No. 12 Nittany Lions at Happy Valley. The Cavaliers stunned JoePa’s team, 14-6.
Virginia went on to reel off 10 wins over its next 11 games, losing only to No. 15 Clemson (34-20) on the road.
Along the way, Welsh’s Wahoos clobbered Steve Spurrier’s Duke team, 49-28, pummeled North Carolina, 50-17, beat Wake Forest, 47-28, edged nonconference Louisville (coached by Howard Schnellenberger), 16-15, beat No. 18 NC State, 20-9, beat Virginia Tech, 32-25, and hammered Maryland, 48-21.
The highest ranking Virginia reached that season was No. 15 with a 10-2 record heading into the Florida Citrus Bowl against QB Jeff George-led Illinois. UVA lost that game, 31-21.
With a 6-1 record in the ACC, Virginia was co-ACC champion with Duke. Welsh argued that UVA should be regarded as the champ because the Cavaliers had their way with the Blue Devils.
Spurrier drew the ire of Welsh and Virginia fans by saying his Duke team should be the champs because the Devils beat defending champion Clemson and added, to be the champions, you have to beat the champion, and “Virginia didn’t beat Clemson, has never beaten Clemson and never will.”
Virginia had lost 29 straight times to Clemson, but ended that streak the next season at Scott Stadium, setting off one of the wildest football celebrations in Wahoo history. Remnants of the goal posts were discovered the next morning, lying at the feet of Thomas Jefferson’s statue at The Rotunda.
Welsh held a grudge against Spurrier from that moment on and years later told this reporter at the time: “You can’t print this, but those Duke people are insufferable.”
Welsh went on to win 10 of his next 12 meetings with Duke until his retirement after the 2000 season.
