So, where does Virginia stand in terms of making the NCAA Tournament?

By Jerry Ratcliffe

With Virginia’s loss at Virginia Tech on Big Monday, the Cavaliers’ path to the NCAA Tournament narrowed considerably.

UVA rests at 16-10 overall and 10-6 in the ACC, which puts Tony Bennett’s team in sixth place, a half game behind Wake Forest and a full game behind North Carolina and Miami. Virginia Tech, which has won its last six games in a row is 8-7, a game and a half behind Virginia.

The Cavaliers dropped in the NCAA’s NET rankings from No. 77 to 79, while the Hokies received a slight bump from 38 to 35.

Virginia is 2-5 in Quad-1 games, 4-1 in Quad-2, 3-4 in Quad-3 and 7-0 in Quad-4. Meanwhile, Tech is 0-5 in Quad-1, 4-3 in Quad-2, 6-2 in Quad-3 and 6-0 in Quad-4.

Essentially, what is hurting UVA along with a soft strength of schedule, are losses to Navy, JMU and NC State, even though the Cavaliers have a better record in Quad-1 and Quad-2.

Meanwhile, bracketologists haven’t exactly smiled on UVA’s chances. Joe Lunardi of ESPN had Virginia ranked in the “next four out,” before last night’s loss. Virginia Tech replaced the Cavaliers in that category as UVA slipped behind that.

Meanwhile, CBS bracket man Jerry Palm doesn’t have UVA or Tech listed on his bubble. Another site gives Virginia a 12-percent chance of making the field and Tech a 17-percent chance.

ESPN analyst Seth Greenberg said on this site’s podcast last Friday that he felt UVA needed to win four or five of its last six games. The Cavaliers have won one (Georgia Tech) and lost one (Virginia Tech), which means in Greenberg’s view, UVA has to win three of its next four: at Miami on Saturday, then Duke and Florida State at home before finishing the regular season at Louisville.

As Greenberg pointed out, a Miami win would help (the Hurricanes are presently No. 69 in the NET), but a win over Duke would be huge. The Blue Devils are No. 11 in the NET, and the selection committee would have to take notice of a sweep of Duke late in the season.

Games against Florida State and Louisville might not move the needle at all (FSU is No. 97 in the NET, while Louisville is No. 125). However, the Cavaliers can’t afford to lose those games either, especially if they beat Miami or Duke beforehand.