Tale of the Tape: Virginia vs. NC State

The ACC road gets a little tougher for the 3rd-ranked Cavaliers down the stretch, beginning with a showdown at No. 23/22 NC State Tuesday at 7 on ESPN2. Virginia will be seeking its seventh-straight win overall against the Wolfpack. In regular-season matchups only, the Cavaliers have won 11 in a row (and 14 of the last 15) against State.

The last time the ‘Pack knocked off the Wahoos in a regular-season matchup was Feb. 21, 2009, in Raleigh.

UVA did lose twice to the Wolfpack over that stretch, both of which came in the ACC Tournament (2012, 2013). The current six-game win streak is the second longest in series history, and a win Tuesday would tie for the longest, matching seven-game Wahoo runs from 1980-83 and 1995-98 over the Wolfies.

UVA has won its last nine games at PNC Arena — five against State, plus four NCAA Tournament victories (Coastal Carolina and Memphis in 2013-14, Hampton and Butler in 2015-16). The Cavaliers are averaging a scoring margin of 14.4 points away from home this season, which is good for second in the country (Duke, 15.1).

Virginia stayed at No. 3 in both major polls this week, and still sits atop both the KenPom (2nd in both Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Efficiency ratings) and NET rankings.

UVA’s current overall KenPom (AdjEM) rating is +37.67, which would be the highest of any team since 2002, as far back as the ratings go. The highest rating a team had to finish the season was the 2014-15 Kentucky team — which went 38-1 and won a national title — at +36.91. The only other time a team posted +35 or higher was Kansas (37-3, national champs) in 2007-08 at +35.21. The best finish for a Cavalier team in the KenPom ratings was +30.06 in 2014-15.

NC State is 32nd overall (23rd AdjO, 69th AdjD) according to KenPom and 29th in the NET rankings. Kevin Keatts is in his second season as head coach at NCSU after three years at UNC Wilmington, and has an explosive offense that can hurt an opponent from all over the floor.

Torin Dorn, a 6-foot-5 senior, leads the team in scoring (14.3 ppg) and rebounding (6.9 rpg), while 6-5 junior transfer guard C.J. Bryce — who followed Keatts from UNC Wilmington — puts up 12.5 points and hauls in 5.3 boards per game. In conference games only, Bryce scores a team-high 14.6 ppg, with Dorn not far behind at 12.3.

Junior Markell Johnson is a dangerous floor general who averages close to a dozen points and four assists a game, while sophomore guards Devon Daniels (a Utah transfer who averages 10.3 points and 4.9 rebounds per game) and sharpshooter Braxton Beverly (9.7 ppg, 3.1 apg) provide perimeter depth.

On the inside, 6-8 graduate transfer Wyatt Walker, 6-10 sophomore DJ Funderburk and 6-7 freshman Jericole Hellems have played in every game and combine to average around 20 points and 11 rebounds a night.

The Wolfpack like to push the pace, as evidenced by their 76 possessions per game, which ranks 31st in the country and third in the conference behind only North Carolina (79.2) and Duke (77.4). State puts up an average of 64.8 shots a contest, good for 10th in the nation as of Monday, trailing only UNC (66.8) and Duke (66.4) in the ACC.

By contrast, Virginia averages 63.2 possessions (352nd of 353 Division I teams) and 54.9 field-goal attempts (293rd) per night.

State’s biggest win was easily an upset of then-No. 7 Auburn (currently unranked) on Dec. 19. The Wolfpack lost by four at then-No. 22 Wisconsin (currently 24th) in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge in late November. No other non-conference matchups really stand out when looking over the rest of the schedule.

In ACC play, the ‘Pack has alternated wins and losses — W at Miami, L vs UNC, W vs Pitt, L at Wake, W at Notre Dame, L at Louisville, W vs Clemson. Beverly capped an impressive comeback in Saturday’s 69-67 win over the Tigers, as he won it on a long 3-pointer that swished through to beat the final buzzer after State trailed by six with just 24 seconds left.

Johnson returned to the lineup against Clemson after missing the previous three games with a back injury (he left the floor following an awkward fall against Pitt on Jan. 12), and led the team in scoring with 16 points.

The ‘Hoos are coming off a pair of easy wins after dominating cellar-dwellers Wake Forest and Notre Dame. Both lopsided victories saw five players score in double figures, marking the first time UVA has achieved that feat in consecutive games in 18 years.

With one more point, junior guard Kyle Guy will move into 46th place by himself on the school’s career scoring list (he’s currently tied with Mamadi Diane with 1,022). Five points would put Guy ahead of Scott McCandlish (1970-72) for 45th.

After Tuesday, three of Virginia’s four remaining away games will also be against opponents currently ranked in the AP Top 25 — Feb. 11 at No. 9 UNC; Feb. 18 at No. 12 Virginia Tech; Feb. 23 at No. 15 Louisville — with the final road test at Syracuse’s Carrier Dome on Mar. 4.

The next two, however, will be at cozy John Paul Jones Arena (where Virginia is a perfect 10-0 on the season), beginning with Saturday’s 2 p.m. Groundhog-Day tilt against Miami. The ‘Hoos will then have a full week to prepare for the highly anticipated rematch against No. 2 Duke at 6 p.m. on Saturday, Feb. 9.