Virginia May Be Facing Most Dangerous Opponent On Its Schedule

When Virginia hosts North Carolina in the 123rd meeting of the “South’s Oldest Rivalry” on Saturday, the Cavaliers may be facing the most dangerous opponent on their schedule.

The Tar Heels are desperate. Their backs are against the wall. Yes, they’ve won only one game this season, and that was against Old Dominion.

From the outside, UNC doesn’t look pretty. The record is awful. Their statistics are gawd-awful.

Still, if Virginia plays against Carolina’s record and not the team, the Cavaliers could be in for a real fight.

While the Heels may not jump off the statistical pages at you on offense, they have weapons. They’re a bit of an enigma in that they have athletes, athletes that can beat you, but they haven’t played together and they haven’t been able to finish the job.

UNC had Virginia Tech on the ropes two weeks ago. The Heels put up 522 yards offense against Bud Foster’s defense. However, when Carolina was about to go up by two scores on the Hokies with little time left in the game, running back Michael Carter fumbled at the one. From there, Tech marched the length of the field and snatched victory from the jaws of defeat with only 19 seconds to play.

Last week, the Tar Heels lost on the road at Syracuse in overtime. So they can beat you if you allow them to hang around.

“Carolina’s offense is explosive,” UVa co-defensive coordinator Kelly Poppinga said. “When you turn on the film, they’re not a 1-5 team. Shoot, this team is one of the best ACC offenses I’ve seen since I’ve been here.”

Statistically, there’s not enough evidence to back up Poppinga’s statement, but they don’t play the game on paper.

Carolina ranks No. 108 out of 129 FBS teams in the country in scoring offense at 23.3 points per game. The Tar Heels are No. 52 in total offense (422 per game), No. 58 in rushing offense (188 per game), and No. 67 in passing offense (234 per game).

Still, that doesn’t account for the potential explosiveness.

“In my opinion, besides N.C. State, this is probably our biggest offensive challenge is coming this week,” Poppinga said.

“They’ve got weapons everywhere from the outside guys to the slot guys to the tight ends,” Poppinga said. “They probably have the three best running backs we’ll see all year as a group. Their offensive line is big and physical.”

There’s wide receiver Anthony Ratliff-Williams, who is probably Carolina’s best playmaker. He’s a dangerous return man that can take it to the house, plus a receiver who can get the job done.

Then there’s Antonio Williams, the best of the three backs Poppinga mentioned. An Ohio State transfer, Williams gained 116 yards rushing and scored a touchdown in the loss at Syracuse. Still, he was named ACC Running Back of the Week.

“Obviously it has been the quarterback play that has held [UNC] back,” Poppinga said. “But the QB (Nathan Elliott) is capable. When he makes good decisions like he did in the Syracuse game and the Pitt game, they can score points. How that guy goes, their offense will go.”

Elliott took over the Tar Heels offense late last season and started this year when Chazz Surratt was sitting out a suspension over the UNC shoe scandal. Surratt came back but suffered a wrist injury and despite starting a freshman a couple weeks back against the Hokies, Carolina has settled on Elliott.

The junior only has six TD passes and has struggled to finish drives.

In North Carolina’s 16 drives inside opponents’ 26-yard line, the Tar Heels have scored only three touchdowns. While Elliott has thrown for 1,241 yards, half his completions are from behind the line of scrimmage.

The scoring problem dates back to last year. UNC has scored 20 points or more in only five of its last 15 games against FBS opponents, including ODU.

“We’ve got to make sure that we make [Elliott] feel uncomfortable,” Poppinga said. “We’ve got to make sure that we tackle the running backs and that the receivers don’t get behind us. If we do that, we’ll give ourselves a good chance on Saturday.”

Poppinga was particularly proud of how his and Nick Howell’s defense shut down Duke’s running game last week, making the Blue Devils one dimensional. Duke had only 58 yards rushing on 27 attempts.

“That was probably the best game we’ve played against the run since we’ve been here,” Poppinga said of Coach Bronco Mendenhall’s three seasons at UVa. “That’s the number one goal as a defense, to shut down the run.”

Poppinga said UVa’s defense did a good job of executing the game plan and made plays when it had to, unlike in the two losses this season at Indiana and at N.C. State.

“We’re tackling well and we’re being physical at the line of scrimmage,” Poppinga said.

Part of that improvement has come from the benefits of what UVa’s coaches call “Tackle Tuesday,” the heaviest work day every week during the season, physical and tough.

“That’s something we’ve done forever going all the way back to our BYU days,” Poppinga said. “Tuesdays are a day we’re going to tackle and we’re going to do that all the way through the season because we feel like tackling is the most important thing for us to control the points. If we can tackle, we feel like we can keep points off the board.”

Virginia ranks No. 19 in the nation in scoring defense (18.4 ppg) and that’s one of the reasons why.

“I think we’re tackling at a higher level than we ever have since we’ve been here,” Poppinga said. “We’ve got to continue to do that this week. [Carolina’s] got dudes everywhere and if you miss one tackle or you’re off one gap, it’s going to the house.”

Injury Update

Virginia running back Jordan Ellis did not practice through Wednesday, and Mendenhall’s policy is that if a player does not practice by at least Thursday, then he won’t play.

There was no information Thursday as to whether Ellis was able to practice.

If he cannot go, then PK Kier will start. See our coverage from Tuesday for a complete story on Kier.

Other Stats

While UNC has struggled on offense, that’s nothing compared to how the Heels have struggled on the other side of the ball.

UNC is No. 110 nationally in scoring defense, surrendering 34.8 points per game. They are also No. 91 in total defense (411 yards per game).

Meanwhile, the Heels are No. 96 in defense against the run (188.5 per game), and No. 60 in passing yards allowed (222.5).